The latest Survey of Employers, Payroll and Hours pointed to a stall in B.C. hiring in September.
Total payroll counts decreased by 0.2 per cent, more than reversing August’s increase. This translated to a gain of 5,323 positions, lowering total payroll employment to 2.56 million positions and adding to a recent downward trend. Goods-producing industries reported 5,211 fewer (down 1.3 per cent) positions while service producing industry payrolls was flat.
The job vacancy rate edged up to 3.7 per cent in September, moving total vacancies to 93,040 during the month. The job vacancy rate has remained low since the second half of 2023, highlighting a low rate of hiring by businesses in the province.
Downward momentum in employment, as highlighted by the survey, was consistent with weakness in Labour Force Survey employment, which fell 0.6 per cent (down 18,000 persons) and 0.4 per cent contraction in the labour force. It is important to note that while multiple job holders are counted once in the Labour Force Survey, they appear as multiple entries in payroll records. That said, trends from both surveys tend to align in the long run.
Payroll counts in goods-producing industries was relatively unchanged in September. Within the category, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector contributed to the overall decline with 4,458 fewer positions recorded in September. The other goods producing sectors recorded minor declines, except the manufacturing sector, which reported 402 more positions during the same month. The flat performance in payroll counts in the services sector was due to gains in education services (up 1.7 per cent or 3,113 positions), offsetting a loss in payroll counts in the administrative services sector (down 1,080 positions and 0.9 per cent). Decreases were also seen in accommodations (down 1,134 positions or 0.5 per cent) and in other services (down 1,267 positions or 1.5 per cent). On the other hand, notable growth was noted in the health-care and social assistance sector (up 1,194 positions or 0.3 per cent).
On the wage front, seasonally adjusted average weekly earnings in B.C. rose by 0.2 per cent to $1,286.83 in September. On a year-over-year basis, September’s average weekly earnings in B.C. were 4.2 per cent higher, which slowed from 4.9 per cent but remained resilient despite soft hiring.
Canadian business optimism among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) increased in November, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business’ Monthly Business Barometer. The long-term, 12-month confidence index rose by 3.9 points to 59.7, its highest level since mid-2022 and nearing the historical average of 60. This indicates growing confidence in the country’s overall economic recovery during the next 12 months. In contrast, the short-term index decreased by 3.1 points to 51.4, reaching above the 50-point benchmark, but below the historical average of 54. Concerns about tariffs may have limited short-term optimism, and more recent threats of even higher tariffs could cut sentiment further in the months to come. The general state of business health reported by most SMEs was “satisfactory.” More than half of businesses reported insufficient domestic and foreign demand as the main limitation to sales growth, followed by labour shortages.
The survey highlighted that national average price and wage increase expectations remained moderate at 2.5 per cent. Additionally, more employers signalled their intentions to expand full-time staffing levels in the near term.
Long-term optimism was widespread across provinces, with notable gains in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. However, in B.C., the 12-month index decreased by one point to 55.4, while the short-term index dipped by 1.2 points to 46.3. Both indices have held low during the recent months as optimism remains tampered by a slowing economy. B.C. also observed a tight provincial election in October which may have also contributed to weak readings.
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
