TORONTO — Stock indexes in Canada and the U.S. ended the day slightly down as markets adopted a holding pattern ahead of U.S. inflation data expected Thursday.
Craig Fehr, investment strategist at Edward Jones, said there were no major moves in the markets Wednesday as investors are waiting for U.S. inflation data to come out and give some indication about future interest rate decisions by central banks.
"Not only is that the news of the week, but frankly, that's the big catalyst for the markets more broadly … because of the implications that that poses for future central bank policy,” said Fehr. "As a result, it's not surprising that we're seeing markets be suspended in advance of a release like that."
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 10.40 points at 18,206.28.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 28.34 points at 29,210.85. The S&P 500 index was down 11.81 points at 3,577.03, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.09 points at 10,417.10.
If inflation is lower than expected, market-watchers will see that as a positive sign that price increases are being moderated effectively by interest rate increases, said Fehr.
“The market is still in a reactionary mode until we have more confidence that the Fed has laid out a path for all the rate hikes that it intends to do.”
The story of the year has been one of interest rates, said Fehr, and what happens in the final quarter will have bearings on the economic outlook for 2023.
"Broadly, we do think we are on a path of lower inflation," he said, but added inflation needs to decline for several months in a row.
"It's too early to suggest that the coast is completely clear. But I think for investors, there's a lot of positive reasons why it makes sense to stay invested."
Investors are waiting for earnings to flow in and give a better sense of where the markets are headed in 2023 after a rocky, unpredictable year.
"Are we seeing any signs that cost pressures and expense pressures are abating for corporations or are they continuing to accelerate?" Fehr said.
Fehr said the energy sector will likely have some upward influence on earnings growth.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.45 cents US compared with 72.60 on Tuesday.
The November crude contract was down US$2.08 at US$87.27 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down 16 cents at US$6.44 per mmBTU.
Oil prices are still undergoing adjustments after the production cuts by OPEC plus, said Fehr.
The December gold contract was down US$8.50 at US$1,677.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down 3.7 cents at US$3.43 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 12, 2022.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD=X)
The Canadian Press
