Will the tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce Saturday include oil and natural gas? Will tariffs on B.C. softwood lumber exports be additive to existing duties of 14.5 per cent?
While no one can guess what Trump will do, one thing is certain – $1 trillion worth of trade between Canada and the U.S. could be in for some serious disruption, if there is a trade war.
The Trump White says tariffs against Canada and Mexico will go into effect Feb. 1.
And the Canadian government has been gearing up to respond with retaliatory tariffs, all of which would lead to serious disruptions in trade for both sides.
According to a new launched by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Canada and the U.S. does $3.6 billion worth of bilateral trade every day.
It estimates the per person impact of that bilateral trade at $1,900 in Canada and $1,872 in the U.S.
Some provinces are more exposed than others. B.C.’s exports market is a bit more diversified than Alberta’s or Ontario’s.
According to the B.C. government, the U.S. accounts for 57 per cent of B.C.’s export market, whereas the U.S. makes up 89 per cent of Alberta’s exports and 83 per cent of Ontario's.
Even so, B.C. does $54.8 billion worth of bi-lateral trade with the U.S. annually, according to the trade tracker.
The top five exports from B.C. to the U.S. total $20.8 billion in value, while the top five imports from the U.S. is valued at $16 billion. It estimates 6,491 B.C. companies export goods and services to the U.S., with Washington state being B.C.’s largest U.S. trade partner.
Bilateral trade between Alberta and the U.S. is $188 billion, $447 billion between Ontario and the U.S., and $121 billion between Quebec and the U.S.
The trade tracker notes that, in the highly integrated automotive trade sector, auto parts from Canada cross the U.S. border eight times before final assembly.
