COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) 鈥� Democrats across are pleading for help in the state's Senate contest, afraid they may lose a winnable election unless national party leaders make major investments in the coming days.
So far, the most powerful groups in Democratic politics have prioritized Senate pickup opportunities in North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania over Ohio, once a perennial swing state that veered right in the Trump era. But on the eve of the 2022 midterms, some public polls suggest Ohio is as competitive as the other swing states, leaving many Democrats here wondering why their party isn't backing Senate contender more forcefully.
鈥淥hio鈥檚 just not a priority anymore. It鈥檚 a daunting task that we have to navigate,鈥� said state Rep. Dontavius Jarrells, a Ryan ally. 鈥淭he reality is that without federal investments, he may not win.鈥�
Ryan, a 10-term congressman, said in an interview that party leaders who believe he can't win 鈥渉ave no idea what鈥檚 going on out here.鈥�
鈥淚鈥檝e come to terms with the fact that we鈥檙e probably not going to get any help. I鈥檓 playing with the team we got on the field,鈥� Ryan said. 鈥淚 can鈥檛 think of anything more Ohio than us taking on the entire political establishment at this point.鈥�
The tension is a reflection of the difficult decisions Democratic leaders are facing about how to invest limited financial resources in the final weeks before the . With a razor-thin Senate majority, any move could carry long-term consequences. If Republicans gain even one seat, they would take control of the Senate 鈥� and with it, gain power to control judicial nominations and President legislative agenda.
And if Ryan comes up short by just a few points, there will likely be an intense round of post-election questions about whether the party could have done more to win.
The financial disparities in the race are stark. Republican , a venture capitalist and author of 鈥淗illbilly Elegy,鈥� is the beneficiary of more than $30 million from outside Republican groups. They include organizations aligned with former President and Senate Republican leader . By contrast, Ryan has benefited from less than $4 million in outside spending so far.
U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has built a reputation as a progressive Democrat who can still win over working class voters in places like Ohio, said the party should do more.
鈥淚f we want to win in Ohio, we need to invest in Ohio,鈥� he said. 鈥淭im Ryan is running a great campaign because he鈥檚 showing voters that he is the candidate who鈥檚 on their side. That鈥檚 how you win elections.鈥�
David Bergstein, the spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which is the official campaign arm for Senate Democrats, said the organization was 鈥減roud鈥� to support Ryan鈥檚 campaign with a coordinated investment of roughly $1 million in television spending that allowed the campaign to take advantage of lower advertising rates for candidates.
There is still a chance Democrats will find some additional money to help Ryan.
The Senate Majority PAC, by far the most influential super PAC in Senate Democratic politics, is not ruling out significant Ohio investments over the election鈥檚 final days, although the group has spent little there so far compared with other key states. On Thursday, the group announced an additional $4 million investment in North Carolina television advertising, bringing its total spending in the state to $15 million and counting.
鈥淭im Ryan is running a remarkably strong campaign that is resonating with Ohio voters of every political persuasion and putting Republicans on defense, while Vance鈥檚 weak candidacy has become a serious liability for the GOP,鈥� said JB Poersch, Senate Majority PAC president. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to continue making strategic, effective decisions that put us in the best position possible to accomplish our mission: defending our Democratic Senate majority.鈥�
Another pro-Democrat group, the Save America Fund, has already spent $2.5 million on television ads designed to help Ryan since August. The group has been discussing more significant buys with other PACs.
鈥淲e are having lots of conversations about how Tim Ryan can win this race,鈥� said Eric Hyers, a former colleague of Ryan鈥檚 campaign manager who is running the Save America Fund. 鈥淲e are all in on this.鈥�
But there are no easy options for Democratic groups deciding where to dedicate their final round of resources.
Democrats are defending vulnerable incumbent senators across Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. They have also been investing heavily in flipping Republican-held seats across Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Democratic officials privately note that Trump twice won Ohio by 8 points, reflecting the Republican leanings of the state. By comparison, Trump won North Carolina by less than 1 percentage point and lost Wisconsin by just over 1 percentage point.
National Democratic strategists also note that Ohio's large working class population has shifted sharply away from Democrats in recent years, despite Ryan's best efforts to appeal to such voters.
That sentiment has led to a sense among Democrats in Ohio that their national party is abandoning them.
鈥淭here's a lot of frustration,鈥� said Ohio-based Democratic strategist Cliff Schecter, conceding that national Democratic leaders have a difficult job. 鈥淭im Ryan doesn鈥檛 need a lot -- just something. Do what you gotta do. Find a little bit of extra money. This race is incredibly winnable.鈥�
Some Republicans privately see Vance as an underwhelming candidate, although most expect him to win because of the state鈥檚 recent Republican shift. He has badly trailed Ryan in fundraising, typically an important gauge of a candidate鈥檚 strength. Ryan has raised more than $21.5 million on his own, compared with Vance鈥檚 $6.9 million.
As the race moves into its final weeks, Vance is leaning on Trump鈥檚 continued popularity in the state to maintain momentum, particularly among undecided working class white voters. Donald Trump Jr., one of Vance鈥檚 strongest supporters, campaigned alongside the Ohio Republican last week.
But Vance's relationship with Trump is complicated.
Vance was initially a so-called 鈥淣ever Trumper鈥� before Trump won the president. The former president then botched Vance鈥檚 name at a rally during the spring primary. And at Trump's most recent Ohio rally for Vance, the former president quipped that Vance 鈥渋s kissing my a鈥斺�� for political support.
Ryan echoed that comment during a debate this week, calling Vance an 鈥渁鈥� kisser.鈥� In the interview, Ryan said he's considering renaming his campaign bus 鈥淭he A鈥� Kicker Express.鈥�
He also made clear that while he'd welcome national Democratic dollars, he doesn't want Biden to campaign on his behalf.
鈥淚t鈥檚 nothing personal. It's just like, I鈥檓 running in Ohio. I know Ohio. I know the message,鈥� Ryan said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 nobody that can express that better than me. And every time you bring people in, you take on their enemies, they may not say the things the way you want it to be said, and we've run a very disciplined campaign for the last year and a half. I just want to make sure that I鈥檓 the face, I鈥檓 the voice.鈥�
Ryan added, 鈥淎nd I want Ohioans to know I stand on my own.鈥�
Yet many Ryan allies continue to clamor for help from the national party.
Former Ohio Democratic Party Chairm David Pepper said the DSCC needs to step up and support Ryan, who鈥檚 鈥渇ighting as effectively as anybody could鈥� without national money.
鈥淚t鈥檚 so similar to what happened in 鈥�16, it鈥檚 kind of hard to watch,鈥� Pepper said, referencing former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland鈥檚 loss to Republican Sen. Rob Portman in that year鈥檚 Senate race. 鈥淚t鈥檚 when polls are tied, our candidate has more money and is a stronger candidate and, when Republicans throw a punch, we walk away. It鈥檚 a terrible signal to send."
In 2016, Strickland ultimately lost to Portman by 21 points. Next door in Pennsylvania, Republican Sen. Pat Toomey won by less than 2.
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Peoples reported from New York.
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This story has been corrected to fix the spelling of the last name of Democratic strategist Cliff Schecter.
Steve Peoples And Julie Carr Smyth, The Associated Press
